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tml.THE MODERN
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Autos / Ownership

Tesla and Rivian Take Two-Thirds of a Shrinking EV Market

United States electric vehicle registrations fell 44 percent in September 2026 from the record set a year earlier, according to Mobility Global data reported this week, while Tesla and Rivian together captured nearly two-thirds of what remained. Tesla registrations slipped a comparatively modest 27 percent, and Rivian posted a gain that lifted its share of the EV market to 7.6 percent, up 4.5 percentage points. The data covers battery-electric vehicles and doesn't include hybrids.

QQuincy2 min read
An electric crossover at a charging station at night in Tuntorp, Sweden (archive). September's registration data shows a smaller U.S. EV market owned by fewer brands. Photo: W.carter / CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Summary

The EV market didn't consolidate around the strongest legacy brand. It consolidated around the two companies that never made anything else.

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The American electric vehicle market got smaller and narrower in the same month. Registrations of battery-electric vehicles fell 44 percent in September 2026 compared with the record set in September a year earlier, according to the most recent data from Mobility Global, reported this week by Automotive News. Inside that shrunken total, two companies took nearly two-thirds of every registration: Tesla, which still leads by a wide margin, and Rivian, which is now the second-best-selling EV maker in the United States.

The split between them is the story. Tesla's registrations fell 27 percent, a steep drop by any normal standard that counts as resilience in this market, because the overall pool fell almost twice as fast. Rivian didn't just hold share; it posted an outright gain in registrations while the market contracted, and its share rose to 7.6 percent, up 4.5 percentage points. The figures exclude hybrids, so they measure the pure-electric business the industry spent a decade promising to build.

The cause isn't a mystery. The federal tax credit that anchored EV pricing was repealed last year, with legislation signed in summer 2025 ending the $7,500 credit that September. Legacy automakers have responded by canceling electric models and steering buyers toward gasoline models and hybrids, the products with margins they trust. Each cancellation hands the remaining demand to the brands that stayed, and the registration data shows where it landed.

The full-year picture is softer than September's cliff but points the same way. Carmakers sold 725,888 EVs in the first nine months of 2026, down from more than 1 million in the same period a year earlier, according to industry figures cited by USA Today. Tesla's own week underlined the shakeout: the company is discontinuing the Cybertruck, which sold 11,586 units in the first three months of 2026 against 16,097 in the same months of 2025, according to Cox Automotive.

Concentration cuts both ways for buyers. A market carried by two specialists means the surviving products get the engineering attention and the charging investment, and Rivian's climb gives shoppers a second domestic option that isn't a legacy brand's side project. It also means fewer nameplates, fewer price fights and more exposure to any single company's decisions, from pricing to service coverage in smaller markets.

What to watch is whether the legacy retreat becomes a round trip. The brands canceling EVs today are keeping hybrid lines warm, and hybrids don't appear in these registration figures at all. If gas prices or a future credit bring buyers back to plugs, the shelf space will belong to Tesla and Rivian, and everyone else will be re-entering a market they handed over. September's data says that handover is no longer a forecast. It's the registration record.

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