Goldman Sachs Forecasts 2.8 Percent Growth in 2027

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the global economy will grow 2.8 percent in 2027. The figure, published November 13, 2026, edges up from an estimated 2.7 percent this year. The bank puts United States growth at 2.4 percent, China's at 4.5 percent and the euro area's at 0.9 percent.

Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief economist, calls it another year of solid but unremarkable growth. Two forces do the lifting in his account. Energy prices are easing after a year of pass-through pain in Europe, and artificial intelligence spending keeps climbing. Tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal boost pull the other way.

The AI line carries the forecast. Goldman expects nominal global AI investment to rise to $1.8 trillion in 2027 from $1.1 trillion this year, driven by more than $500 billion of extra hardware spending in the United States. The bank credits that spending with 0.4 percentage point of global growth and 0.6 percentage point of United States growth.

Inflation cools slowly in the same outlook. Goldman expects United States core PCE inflation to fall from 3.2 percent at the end of 2026 to 2.4 percent by the end of 2027. It also expects two more Federal Reserve rate hikes, in December and March, before cuts follow. Households shouldn't expect borrowing relief early in the year.

The bank is explicit that the risks tilt down. A renewed escalation with Iran could push energy prices back up, with one scenario putting oil at $132 a barrel. Large government deficits could lift long-term borrowing costs, and an AI investment slowdown would remove the forecast's main engine at once.

That structure is the story under the headline number. Growth of 2.8 percent doesn't rest on broad consumer strength. It rests on data centers, chips and power equipment, and it holds only while that spending does.