Turkey Wholesale Nears $1.81, Retail Holds 79 Cents

The turkey on the wholesale market and the turkey in the grocery ad are priced like different birds this year. Frozen basted hens of 8 to 16 pounds traded at $1.81 a pound wholesale in the week of November 2 to 6, according to USDA market data compiled by Ohio State University. At retail, Target is holding its Good & Gather frozen turkey at 79 cents a pound for the third straight year. The store pays more than twice what it charges.

USDA's November supply and demand report sets the year's frame. The department puts the 2026 average price for frozen whole hens at $1.77 a pound, 30 percent above last year's $1.36. The holiday quarter is tighter still: $1.81 a pound forecast against $1.72 a year ago, a 5 percent increase. USDA's Economic Research Service estimated the October wholesale price at $1.825 a pound, 6.9 percent above October 2025. Tight whole-bird supplies drove the upward revision, USDA said.

The retail side hasn't moved with it. Walmart kept its Butterball price at 97 cents a pound, unchanged from 2025. Amazon set frozen turkey at 79 cents a pound through November 26, with fresh birds at 99 cents starting November 14. USDA's own advertised-price survey for the week covered by its November 6 report put conventional frozen whole turkeys under 16 pounds at a weighted average of $1.19 a pound across major outlets, with fresh birds at $1.46.

The ads are doing the work ads are meant to do. USDA's feature report shows turkey grocery features climbing fast into the holiday: the feature rate rose 6.7 percent and the activity index 53.8 percent in the November 6 report, with whole birds taking more ad space, led by frozen conventional options. A second USDA report, dated November 13 and covering November 9 to 13 trading, showed retail feature activity for whole birds up sharply again. Retailers price the bird to bring in the shopper, then sell the rest of the meal at ordinary margins.

The whole meal's arithmetic still lands near last year's. Wells Fargo's 2026 Thanksgiving estimate puts food for ten at $78.93, down 0.4 percent from 2025. The advertised meal deals are already posted: Walmart at $35 for ten people, ALDI under $39 for ten, and Target at $30 for six. Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 26.

Supply is the reason the split may not last. USDA projects 2026 turkey production at 5.18 billion pounds, up about 7 percent from 4.84 billion pounds in 2025. For 2027, the department sees the wholesale average easing to $1.50 a pound, about 15 percent below this year, as production climbs again to 5.25 billion pounds. This year's 79-cent bird is a wholesale market being absorbed by retailers. Next year's doesn't need to be.

Eggs and dairy soften the rest of the basket. USDA forecasts egg prices down 29.3 percent for 2026 and dairy down 0.4 percent, according to industry reporting of the department's outlook. Those drops help explain how a meal for ten can hold roughly flat while its centerpiece costs grocers 30 percent more than it did a year ago. The bird got more expensive. The meal, mostly, didn't.