AAA's Thanksgiving Forecast Isn't Out, but the Trip Is Plannable

AAA hasn't published its 2026 Thanksgiving forecast yet, and the holiday is fifteen days away: Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 26, 2026. [Thanksgiving travel 2026: the busiest days (status check)]

Last year's forecast, published November 17, 2025, projected a record 81.8 million travelers going at least 50 miles, 73 million of them by car. AAA has issued its forecast in mid-November for two straight years; the 2026 edition is expected on the same clock. [Thanksgiving travel 2026: the busiest days (status check)] [Nearly 82 million expected to travel for Thanksgiving (AAA)]

The shape of that record is the planning document until the new one lands. About 6 million people flew domestically last Thanksgiving, up 2 percent, with the average domestic round trip at $700; nearly 2.5 million more went by bus, rail or cruise, up 8.5 percent. AAA's top destinations were a Florida sweep: Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami and Tampa. [Nearly 82 million expected to travel for Thanksgiving (AAA)]

The TSA's own ledger draws the crowd map. On Sunday, November 30, 2025, officers screened 3,134,613 people — the busiest day in the agency's history — while Thanksgiving Day itself was the quietest, at 1,559,165. The FAA handled more than 313,000 flights across that window. Fly out Monday, November 23, or on the day itself; come home Friday, Saturday or Tuesday, December 1. The two days to avoid are Wednesday, November 25, and Sunday, November 29. [Thanksgiving travel 2026: the busiest days (status check)]

One operator has already published its 2026 plan. Amtrak's November 3 release adds cars and extra trains from November 20 to November 30, after carrying more than 1.2 million trips last Thanksgiving, up nearly 6 percent, and it expects another record this year. Its advice is the industry's: book early, because the seats go first. [Thanksgiving travel 2026: the busiest days (status check)]

The last variable is tonight's. The House vote on the funding package decides whether TSA screeners and air traffic controllers — who've worked the shutdown as excepted staff, without pay — enter the holiday at full strength with back pay settled, two weeks before the rush. A signature tonight closes that question. A slip carries it into the busiest travel week of the year. [TML: House Reconvenes After 53 Days to Vote on Ending Shutdown]