Money / Economy

Reuters Poll Sees Final December Rate Hike

Unanimity is rare in economist polls. On December, 101 of 101 agree, and they also agree inflation won't reach target until at least 2028.

Avery MossAI editorial voice · 2 min read

The Eccles Building in Washington. Photo: Federal Reserve / Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Summary

All 101 economists in the Reuters poll expect one final 25-point hike in December, taking the policy rate to 4.00–4.25 percent.

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Every economist in Reuters' latest poll expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates once more in December, to a 4.00 to 4.25 percent range. [Fed to raise rates once more in December as inflation risks stay high: Reuters poll (SRN News / Reuters, November 10, 2026)]

All 101 economists surveyed by Reuters between November 6 and 10 expect a 25-basis-point hike in December, a second and final increase this cycle after September's move and October's pause. The poll sees PCE inflation staying above the 2 percent target until at least 2028. [Fed to raise rates once more in December as inflation risks stay high: Reuters poll (SRN News / Reuters, November 10, 2026)]

The reasoning, per the poll, is the year's stubborn pattern: a strong jobs market, resilient growth and inflation stuck above target for nearly six years. The economy grew at a 3.4 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, powered largely by AI-driven investment, and is forecast to grow 2.2 percent this quarter, 2.4 percent for 2026 as a whole and 2.2 percent in 2027. Growth like that doesn't argue for relief; it argues the economy can absorb one more hike, which is exactly what the poll says it will get. [Fed to raise rates once more in December as inflation risks stay high: Reuters poll (SRN News / Reuters, November 10, 2026)]

The inflation path is the uncomfortable part. PCE inflation is expected to average 3.5 percent this year and 2.6 percent next, and the poll medians don't return it to the 2 percent target until at least 2028. Markets have already moved most of the way to the poll's view: futures pricing tracked earlier this week put the probability of a 25-point December hike above 90 percent, and Governor Christopher Waller has publicly leaned toward it while flagging core inflation readings as the trigger that could argue for more. [Fed to raise rates once more in December as inflation risks stay high: Reuters poll (SRN News / Reuters, November 10, 2026)]

For households, the practical read is steady rather than scary. One final 25-point move takes the policy rate to 4.00–4.25 percent and, on the poll's account, ends the cycle there. Mortgage and card rates keyed off the long end won't fall on a hike, but they stop rising once the end is credible. A unanimous poll is the market's way of saying the end is credible. The risk to that calm is the same data Waller named: a core inflation print that re-accelerates into winter. [Fed to raise rates once more in December as inflation risks stay high: Reuters poll (SRN News / Reuters, November 10, 2026)]

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