Renewable Additions Fall First Time in 21 Years
Down 11% to 733 GW on China's auction switch — while the queue of projects waiting for a grid connection hits 3,000 GW. The six-year outlook still grows 57%.
IEA forecasts global renewable additions will dip 11% in 2026 to 733 gigawatts, the first fall in 21 years, as grid queues grow.
The world will add 733 gigawatts of renewable power capacity in 2026, down 11 percent, the first decline after 21 straight years of growth. [Record renewables growth runs into a full grid — W4, reporting the IEA's Renewables 2026] [BloombergNEF expects record U.S. solar, wind and storage additions in 2026 — Denkstrom]
The International Energy Agency's Renewables 2026 forecast still expects about 4,800 gigawatts added between 2026 and 2031, 57 percent more than the previous six years. The renewables share of electricity rises from 33 percent in 2025 toward 45 percent in 2031. [Record renewables growth runs into a full grid — W4, reporting the IEA's Renewables 2026] [BloombergNEF expects record U.S. solar, wind and storage additions in 2026 — Denkstrom]
The dip is mostly one country's policy change. In June 2025 China replaced fixed payments for new renewable plants with auctions, and Chinese solar additions in the first nine months of 2026 ran almost 55 percent below a year earlier; the IEA cut its China forecast by about 116 gigawatts. Even so, 733 gigawatts is the second-highest annual total ever recorded, and the United States runs the other way: BloombergNEF expects a record 89 gigawatts of solar, wind and storage additions in 2026 as developers race expiring tax credits — the IRS requires construction to have begun before July 5, 2026 for projects entering service after 2027. [Record renewables growth runs into a full grid — W4, reporting the IEA's Renewables 2026] [BloombergNEF expects record U.S. solar, wind and storage additions in 2026 — Denkstrom]
The constraint the report keeps returning to isn't panels or money — it's the wire. Advanced-stage projects waiting for a grid connection rose 60 percent in a year to 3,000 gigawatts, four times what wind and solar connected last year, and battery storage applications alone passed 1,500 gigawatts. Power that can't connect gets curtailed: about 200 terawatt-hours in 2025, potentially more than 800 by 2031. The generation milestones still arrive — solar overtakes wind this year and hydropower in 2029, and by 2031 wind and solar together supply over half the electricity in 17 countries. [Record renewables growth runs into a full grid — W4, reporting the IEA's Renewables 2026] [BloombergNEF expects record U.S. solar, wind and storage additions in 2026 — Denkstrom]
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