CJ Carr, Darian Mensah and Jeremiah Smith Turn Heisman Race Into a Three-Way Tie

The Heisman Trophy race has three leaders and no front-runner. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr, Miami quarterback Darian Mensah and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith sit within a few points of each other in every major market after the weekend that rearranged the award — and each holds a different kind of claim on it.

Carr's claim is the moment. He went 29 of 40 for 319 yards and three touchdowns in Notre Dame's 31-24 win over then-No. 1 Miami on November 7, outplaying the man he was chasing in the game that decided the race's order. On Kalshi's market he jumped from 2.5% on October 23 to the lead; BetMGM now lists him as the favorite at +165. His season line — 2,168 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, one interception for an 8-1 team — is the smallest of the three résumés and the freshest in voters' minds.

Mensah's claim is the season. He has thrown for 2,701 yards and 28 touchdowns against two interceptions, and he still leads the nation in completion percentage at 76.8%. Miami's loss to Notre Dame cost him the top spot in the odds — BetMGM has him at +300 — but it didn't touch his numbers, and his argument writes itself: no quarterback in the country has played the position better over ten weeks, whatever happened in one Saturday night in South Bend.

Smith's claim was supposed to be inevitability. Two weeks ago the Ohio State receiver held 41.5% on Kalshi and looked like the rare wideout who wins this award. Then Ohio State lost consecutive games, including a 41-28 home defeat to Oregon, with starting quarterback Julian Sayin out indefinitely — and a receiver's campaign, fairly or not, sinks with his team's. Smith sits third at +300, still close enough that one enormous Saturday pulls him back into first.

It's fitting that the sport's other big trophy can't separate them either. All three were named semifinalists for the Maxwell Award on November 10, on the same day; the list trims to three finalists on November 24. The fourth name in this race is already gone — Miami receiver Malachi Toney, whose high ankle sprain will cost him weeks and ended the most electric candidacy of the season a month early.

The near-misses frame how close the top three are. Dampier has carried Utah into the playoff picture from the sport's least-watched time slots, and his candidacy gets a national stage Saturday night when the Utes play at Arizona. Mestemaker, a sophomore, leads the country with 29 touchdown passes for an Oklahoma State team nobody scheduled around in August. Stockton quarterbacks the No. 1 team in the country. In most seasons, any of the three would be the story. This season, they're the understudies.

Behind the three, the market thins fast: Utah quarterback Devon Dampier, Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker — who leads the nation with 29 touchdown passes — and Georgia's Gunner Stockton. Any of them needs the top three to stumble together, which in this season isn't the long shot it sounds like.

The mechanics favor the patient. Because ballots aren't due until December 7 — after conference championship weekend — voters will grade all three on their biggest remaining games rather than their Novembers. Carr still has SMU's defense ahead of him. Mensah can win the ACC. Smith gets Michigan, the game that has defined or destroyed more Ohio State seasons than any trophy vote. The award markets will move weekly; the ballots move once, at the end, which is exactly where a three-way tie wants to be decided.

Saturday grades all three claims at once. Mensah gets the strangest test: Duke, the program he led to an unlikely ACC championship last season, brings the conference's top pass defense into Miami at noon. Carr hosts Boston College in the afternoon. Smith and reeling Ohio State host Northwestern. By Saturday night the tie could be broken — or the three could be closer than ever.

Heisman ballots are due by 5 p.m. Eastern on December 7, and the winner is announced December 12. Three regular-season games, a conference championship weekend and a month of campaigning remain. The race doesn't have a favorite. It has three arguments, and the next three Saturdays are where they'll be won.