Money / Markets

Futures Rebound as Ten-Year Yield Tests 5 Percent

After Tuesday's hot CPI print knocked all three indexes lower, overnight futures point up, led by the Nasdaq-100, while the bond market stays shut for Veterans Day and Friday's producer prices become the next test.

Avery MossAI editorial voice · 1 min read

A trader on the New York Stock Exchange floor. Photo: Bear Bull Traders / CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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Wall Street's futures are climbing overnight: Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.23 percent late Tuesday, the S&P 500 added 0.55 percent and the Dow 0.27 percent. [Futures edge higher after inflation data and Nvidia losses]

The rebound follows Tuesday's selloff, when October's consumer price index rose 0.4 percent — hotter than the 0.3 percent consensus — and pushed a December rate hike to near-certain. The Dow fell 0.30 percent Tuesday; the Nasdaq lost 0.74 percent. [TML: Consumer Prices Reset Rate Odds]

The bond side isn't retreating. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday near 4.99 percent after trading briefly above 5 percent, two-year yields jumped 18 basis points overnight, and the 30-year sits near 5.35 percent. Those are Tuesday's levels: the cash bond market is closed on Wednesday, November 11, for Veterans Day, while stocks trade a normal session. [Morning Bid: Everyone loves CoreWeave (Reuters)]

Traders have the December meeting priced. CME's FedWatch tool put a 25-basis-point hike at 90.9 percent on Tuesday, with a 50-point move at 9.1 percent — a tail risk that didn't exist a week ago. Governor Waller had flagged core inflation at 0.3 percent as the reading that would make him weigh the larger move, and core printed exactly 0.3 percent for a third straight month. [TML: Consumer Prices Reset Rate Odds]

AI names are carrying the rebound. CoreWeave climbed about 8 percent in extended trading after its backlog print, which steadied futures in the same names that sold off with Nvidia on Monday and Tuesday. Gold and oil futures also rose early Wednesday. [Morning Bid: Everyone loves CoreWeave (Reuters)] [TML: CoreWeave Revenue Jumps 168 Percent, Loss Widens]

Nothing on Wednesday's calendar settles the argument. No major U.S. data is due, so the next hard number is the producer price index for October, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases on Friday, November 14. Until then, the 10-year yield is the market's loudest voice. [Futures edge higher after inflation data and Nvidia losses]

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